Received: from opus.hpl.hp.com by jr.hpl.hp.com with ESMTP (1.37.109.24/15.5+ECS 3.3+HPL1.1) id AA183712992; Wed, 28 Jul 1999 10:29:52 -0700 Return-Path: <geohaye@hotmail.com-DeleteThis> Received: from hplms26.hpl.hp.com by opus.hpl.hp.com with ESMTP (1.37.109.24/15.5+ECS 3.3+HPL1.1) id AA004772983; Wed, 28 Jul 1999 10:29:43 -0700 Received: from hotmail.com (law2-f226.hotmail.com [216.32.181.226]) by hplms26.hpl.hp.com (8.9.1a/HPL-PA Relay) with SMTP id KAA07992 for <wind_talk@opus.hpl.hp.com-DeleteThis>; Wed, 28 Jul 1999 10:29:42 -0700 (PDT) Received: (qmail 71452 invoked by uid 0); 28 Jul 1999 17:28:42 -0000 Message-Id: <19990728172842.71451.qmail@hotmail.com-DeleteThis> Received: from 151.198.183.194 by www.hotmail.com with HTTP; Wed, 28 Jul 1999 10:28:41 PDT X-Originating-Ip: [151.198.183.194] From: "George Haye" <geohaye@hotmail.com-DeleteThis> To: wind_talk@opus.hpl.hp.com-DeleteThis Subject: Mike Godsey on the long-term weather pattern changes Date: Wed, 28 Jul 1999 10:28:41 PDT Content-Type: text/plain; format=flowed
Hi everyone,
Below is a message sent to me today from Mike Godsey regarding our long-term
weather pattern changes. Those of us who feel the wind has been in a
down-cycle are not going nuts. It's true. Perhaps we'll be back to normal in
a couple years, or maybe by 2020. Good news: those of us who have been OK
with the wind and the amount of fun we've been able to eek out over the last
couple of years are going to be in hog heaven whenever we finally get back
into a really good long-term cycle. I just hope we don't lose access to [or
place airport runways in the middle of] too many of our windsurf sites in
the meantime...
-George Haye
===========--------------==============------------===============
>From Mike Godsey, Call of the Wind
George and Scott,
George, you can pass this on to wind_talk
Yea, I remeber 5-9 years ago when I could sail the NW winds on the
coast
starting in March-May and sail 4-5 days per week. The past 4-5 years
March on
the N. Coast has been unrelaible. We are lucky to have 2 days of wind
per week
in April and May.
Plus the flavor of the wind has changed. We used to have fairly steady
and fun
winds in the 4.5 to 4.0 range for 2-3 days. Now we have 1-2 days with
wild
gusty blasts and holes in the 3.0 to 4.0 range.
Then when the June Gloom descended I would head to Coyote with frequent
W to NW
days much of the summer except when Rio or Larkspur went off. This new
weather
pattern is not just messing up the Peninsula. Larkspur used to blow 3-5
days
per week. Now it almost does not blow!
As Scott mentions below I focus on the short term causes of the wind
pattern
but I rarely mention the long term changes. (See the bottom of the
forecast
page for my May 1999 shot at forecasting the mid-term causes of this
summer's
SW weather)
Subjectively I feel that something is going haywire with our
weather...but
weather always goes in cycles. Daily, weekly, seasonaly and much longer
term
cycles. The little long term data 10-30 years I have seen hints that
5-10 years
ago we were in a strong NW part of a long term cycle and that now we
are in
the opposite part of that cycle. This is just a educated and depressing
guess.
El Nino and his B#*@h sister are also playing a role, especially this
season.
I will talk to some climate guys when I have time and see what they
think.
Thanks for the report.
Mike Godsey
--------------------------------------------=======----------------
George Haye wrote:
>Hi Mike,
>Here's a post from a fellow named Scott who wonders are we in some
kind of a
>permanent SW-wind hell in the Bay area? (Sure Rio is great, but Coyote
has
>literally had 5 times more SW offshore days than NW days over the past
two
>seasons. I've been there a lot, and it's true.)
>
>Are the NW seasons gone for good do you think? Or will the weather
recover
>next year or the year after that? Is this global warming,
urbanization,
>etc., or some other massive dynamic at work? Or just El Nino last year
and
>La Nina this year?...
>
>Your thoughts?
>
>-George
>
>--------------------------ORIGINAL MESSAGE: -----------------
>
>Reply-To: wind_talk@opus.hpl.hp.com-DeleteThis
>To: Multiple recipients of list <wind_talk@opus.hpl.hp.com-DeleteThis>
>Subject: RE: Call of the Wind-Data request
>Date: Fri, 23 Jul 1999 16:37:18 -0700
>
>Have been following this thread with some interest. Personally, I
think
>COTW is a great service. IMO, the real problem is truly lousy wind
for the
>past few years.
>
>Don't mean to sound like a windasaur, but does anybody remember the
days
>before COTW/WWW when it would blow 20-25 knots from the NW 6 out of 7
days
>during prime season? By this time of the year, I would welcome a break
to
>let my hands patch up and various joints recuperate. Forecast
methodology:
>Get in car ~1:00pm; if fog over bay (from Palo Alto), go to San Luis
or
>Rio. Otherwise Crissy/Coyote. Waddell if 11:00am buoys on NWS radio
were
>going off.
>
>Currently, with the predominant W/SW flow we see, w/ generally
marginal
>conditions, all the major sites have gusty, shifting winds, w/ large
inside
>wind holes. COWT and all the other web resources very accurately
present a
>ton of data that all point to the same thing: The weather (at least
for
>windsurfing) sucks! Mike Godsey's forecasts w/ talk about cut-off
lows, and
>troughs etc highlight the day by day problem, but I've never seen
anybody
>discuss what appears in my mind to be a major shift in Bay Area
weather.
>
>Comments?
>********************************
>Scott Winkler
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