Received: from hplms26.hpl.hp.com by opus.hpl.hp.com with SMTP (1.37.109.8/15.5+ECS 3.3+HPL1.1) id AA07029; Mon, 26 Sep 1994 10:08:49 -0700 Return-Path: <WindFinder@aol.com-DeleteThis> Received: from mail02.prod.aol.net by hplms26.hpl.hp.com with SMTP (1.36.108.4/15.5+ECS 3.3+HPL1.1S) id AA19338; Mon, 26 Sep 1994 10:09:25 -0700 Received: by mail02.prod.aol.net (1.38.193.5/16.2) id AA28096; Mon, 26 Sep 1994 13:05:41 -0400 From: WindFinder@aol.com-DeleteThis X-Mailer: America Online Mailer Sender: "WindFinder" <WindFinder@aol.com-DeleteThis> Message-Id: <9409261304.tn144494@aol.com-DeleteThis> To: wind_talk@opus.hpl.hp.com-DeleteThis Date: Mon, 26 Sep 94 13:04:36 EDT Subject: Windsight forecasts
Now that weather service has moved from Redwood City to Monterey the quality
of the forecast continues to erode. Part of the problem is that the morning
Oakland RAOB (radio beacon) sounding ballon report is often missing from the
NOAA computers due to technical and fiscal constraints. This means that the
weather service guys in Monterey do not have a good measure of the thickness
of the marine layer which is the key to forecasting summer thermal winds. In
the past when the RAOB was missing they could look out the window in Redwood
City and estimate the thickness from the fog. This is hard to do from
Monterey.
There is an alternative. Windsight has two full time professional
meteorologists, who are also hard core windsurfers. All these guys do 7 days
a week is forecast wind for sailors in the S.F. Bay, Gorge and Maui. Unlike
the NOAA meteorologists these guys, George McLean and Jim Carroll are
microclimate specialists. They are trained to look at small differences in
local topography and pressure gradients and how they influcence local winds.
In the Bay Area they have access to all of the NOAA raw data, super computer
models and Sat. data. They also use Windsights own weather stations which
update every 60 seconds by modem and are located at most major sailing sites
(including 3rd. Ave) to get pressure, wind etc data.
Most importantly Windsight has a network of sailors who live or work at
strategic weather locations in the Bay Area and send frequently weather
reports to Windsight.
All of this goes into the Windsight models and is used to to make custom
forecasts for every sailing site in the Bay Area at 9:00 a.m. and noon daily.
For the Penninsula the Candlestick, Tiger, Crown, Coyote and 3rd. forecasts
are on option 55. This same option also has 3 automated sensor reports and
on-site cellular reports from sailors on the beach.
In short the forecasts are much more accuate than the Weather Service and are
customized for windsurfers and each sailing site. How accurate are the
forecasts in the Penninsula? Well the Windsight models are always improving
as the data base gets larger. Right now they are very accurate when there is
a NW or SW flow along the coast. If the pressure gradient is weak and there
is not much of an ocean push the forecast is less reliable since very local
thermal winds are hard to predict. This is when the on-site reports are
invaluable. By next season Windsight should have a sensor which actually
gives the real wind for the waters off Coyote and this will further improve
the Penninsula forecasts.
Incidentally if you use the 3rd. Ave. sensor you will need some correction
factors because of the wind shadow near shore. Add 10 mph to the report for
NW winds and 5 mph for WNW winds. We will have a sensor at the new golf
course when it is developed since this should be a better site than our
current one.
If you live or work where you can see wind and fog patterns and would like
help all of us to have better forecasts and find wind call me at
1-800-685-9463 or e-mail to windfinder@aol.com-DeleteThis
Mike Godsey
Windsight and WindTracks Magazine
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